OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ England Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC · finished
Nottingham Forest 1.00 0 - 1 2.40 Arsenal
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 55.4%61%-5.6%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 81.8%86%-4.0%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 74.4%80%-6.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.6%53%+8.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson20.3%26.3%53.5%
xgboost16.7%20.5%62.8%
logistic19.8%25.9%54.3%
Inputs the models saw
Nottingham ForestArsenal
Elo (pre-match)16721935
Surface Elo16721935
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.002.40
Form trend0.300.30
Season points per game0.003.00
Season goals for / game1.002.00
Season goals against / game3.001.00
Rest days78
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W5 W · 2 D
Nottingham Forest: last 5
13 OctANotts County1 - 5L
11 OctACrystal Palace1 - 3L
11 OctACrystal Palace1 - 3L
09 OctAPeterborough United5 - 1W
22 SepABurton1 - 1D
Arsenal: last 5
13 OctHLille3 - 0W
10 OctHLeeds2 - 1W
10 OctHLeeds2 - 1W
19 SepABrighton0 - 3L
12 SepASunderland2 - 0W
Head to head
17 Jan 2026Nottingham Forest0 - 0Arsenal
13 Sep 2025Arsenal3 - 0Nottingham Forest
26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest0 - 0Arsenal
23 Nov 2024Arsenal3 - 0Nottingham Forest
30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest1 - 2Arsenal
12 Aug 2023Arsenal2 - 1Nottingham Forest
20 May 2023Nottingham Forest1 - 0Arsenal
30 Oct 2022Arsenal5 - 0Nottingham Forest
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.6461.0%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0324.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home5.8117.2%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9052.6%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9152.4%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC