OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-12

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Monday 12 October 2026, 06:10 UTC · finished

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.40 2 - 1 1.80 Taylor Fritz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	59.5%	62%	-2.6%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	36.4%	63.6%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	42.6%	57.3%
logistic	49.0%	51.0%

Inputs the models saw

	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Taylor Fritz
Elo (pre-match)	1933	2013
Surface Elo	1933	2013
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	0.30
Season points per game	3.00	1.50
Season goals for / game	2.00	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.33	1.00
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	2 W · 0 D

Stefanos Tsitsipas: last 5

12 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Kimmer Coppejans	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Kimmer Coppejans	2 - 0	W

Taylor Fritz: last 5

12 Oct	A	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Matteo Arnaldi	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Matteo Arnaldi	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Jaume Munar	1 - 2	L
01 Oct	A	Jaume Munar	1 - 2	L

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 1	Taylor Fritz
15 Jan 2024	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1 - 3	Taylor Fritz
10 Apr 2023	Stefanos Tsitsipas	0 - 2	Taylor Fritz
17 Jan 2022	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3 - 2	Taylor Fritz
28 Oct 2019	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	Taylor Fritz
20 Sep 2019	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 1	Taylor Fritz

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.61	62.1%	11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.40	41.7%	11 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC