| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 67% | -12.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.5% | 41.4% |
| logistic | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Sebastian Gorzny | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1570 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1570 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 3 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Alastair Gray | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Quinn Vandecasteele | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Erik Arutiunian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Sebastian Gorzny | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrew Fenty | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrew Fenty | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 1 | Sebastian Gorzny |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |