OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Scottish Premiership · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Hibernian 0.20 1 - 2 1.00 Falkirk
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.3%62%-7.3%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.3%86%-5.9%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 72.6%80%-7.6%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.4%47%+6.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 53.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson54.2%23.6%22.2%
xgboost54.1%25.1%20.8%
logistic56.7%24.8%18.5%
Inputs the models saw
HibernianFalkirk
Elo (pre-match)16581619
Surface Elo16581619
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.201.00
Form trend-0.100.00
Season points per game0.880.75
Season goals for / game1.000.88
Season goals against / game1.501.38
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W1 W · 1 D
Hibernian: last 5
10 OctADundee United0 - 1L
10 OctADundee United0 - 1L
26 SepAAnnan Athletic1 - 2L
22 SepAAlloa1 - 4L
19 SepHAberdeen1 - 1D
Falkirk: last 5
10 OctHDundee1 - 2L
10 OctHDundee1 - 2L
19 SepASt Johnstone1 - 1D
19 SepASt Johnstone1 - 1D
15 SepHHearts2 - 1W
Head to head
09 May 2026Falkirk1 - 3Hibernian
24 Jan 2026Falkirk4 - 1Hibernian
06 Dec 2025Hibernian3 - 0Falkirk
23 Sep 2025Falkirk2 - 2Hibernian
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.3323.1%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.8026.3%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.6859.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7357.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.1047.6%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away4.9320.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1324.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6859.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7158.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC