| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.5% | 85% | -14.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 21.2% | 78.7% |
| logistic | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| David Jorda Sanchis | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1747 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1747 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Dino Prizmic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | David Jorda Sanchis | 1 - 0 | Jesper De Jong |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.20 | 83.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.25 | 23.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |