| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.6% | 72% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| logistic | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Tomas Machac | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1820 | 1919 |
| Surface Elo | 1820 | 1919 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Zangar Nurlanuly | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alexandre Muller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Karen Khachanov | 3 - 1 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |