| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.9% | 57% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.5% | 81% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.0% | 75% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.0% | 45% | +4.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.4% | 28.0% | 29.6% |
| xgboost | 53.2% | 27.2% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 51.5% | 28.1% | 20.5% |
| Everton | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1709 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1709 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | A | Tamworth | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Newcastle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Newcastle | 3 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Sunderland | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Sunderland | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Ipswich Town U21 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Fulham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Fulham | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.94 | 20.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.14 | 24.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |