| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.8% | 64% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.6% | 86% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.5% | 80% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 69% | -11.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.2% | 22.8% | 55.0% |
| xgboost | 12.6% | 17.6% | 69.8% |
| logistic | 18.1% | 22.2% | 59.8% |
| Motherwell | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1678 | 1904 |
| Surface Elo | 1678 | 1904 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.14 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 8 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Bonnyrigg Rose | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Aberdeen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Rangers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Clachnacuddin FC | 3 - 3 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | East Kilbride | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Rangers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Rangers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Sep | A | St Johnstone | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 May 2026 | Motherwell | 2 - 3 | Celtic |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Celtic | 3 - 1 | Motherwell |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Motherwell | 2 - 0 | Celtic |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Celtic | 3 - 2 | Motherwell |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Motherwell | 1 - 3 | Celtic |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Celtic | 4 - 0 | Motherwell |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Motherwell | 0 - 3 | Celtic |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Motherwell | 1 - 3 | Celtic |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Celtic | 1 - 1 | Motherwell |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Motherwell | 1 - 2 | Celtic |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 5.00 | 20.0% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 11 Oct 12:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.64 | 21.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.03 | 19.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |