| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.9% | 68% | -12.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.4% | 47.5% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Hugo Gaston | Daniil Glinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1712 | 1703 |
| Surface Elo | 1712 | 1703 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Alexander Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Mar 2026 | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 1 | Hugo Gaston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |