OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC · finished
Ajax 2.00 1 - 1 1.00 Nijmegen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.9%75%-17.8%✗ miss
DCHome or away 79.5%87%-7.4%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 72.2%88%-16.1%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.2%75%-19.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson58.6%20.7%20.8%
xgboost56.1%18.7%25.2%
logistic63.9%21.0%15.1%
Inputs the models saw
AjaxNijmegen
Elo (pre-match)16761581
Surface Elo16761581
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.00
Form trend0.100.40
Season points per game1.001.00
Season goals for / game2.001.00
Season goals against / game2.001.00
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W1 W · 4 D
Ajax: last 5
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
19 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
15 SepHWillem II5 - 1W
12 SepAFor Sittard5 - 1W
05 SepHPSV Eindhoven1 - 3L
Nijmegen: last 5
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
12 SepACambuur0 - 3L
08 SepHExcelsior2 - 2D
05 SepHFeyenoord1 - 3L
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Ajax1 - 1Nijmegen
20 Dec 2025Nijmegen2 - 2Ajax
11 May 2025Ajax0 - 3Nijmegen
01 Dec 2024Nijmegen1 - 2Ajax
18 Feb 2024Ajax2 - 2Nijmegen
03 Dec 2023Nijmegen1 - 2Ajax
05 Mar 2023Ajax1 - 0Nijmegen
08 Jan 2023Nijmegen1 - 1Ajax
23 Apr 2022Nijmegen0 - 1Ajax
14 Aug 2021Ajax5 - 0Nijmegen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away8.1412.3%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.3115.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.3474.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3375.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.5028.6%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC