| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.4% | 67% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| logistic | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Francesco Forti | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1636 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1636 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Juan Mano, Alejandro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Ryan Nijboer | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Berto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | Francesco Forti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |