| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.1% | 72% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| logistic | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1970 | 1754 |
| Surface Elo | 1970 | 1754 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.56 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.78 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | James Duckworth | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Yibing Wu | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 3 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | James Duckworth |
| 17 Jun 2024 | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | James Duckworth |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | James Duckworth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 07 Oct 06:15 |