| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.1% | 62% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.7% | 86% | -4.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.8% | 80% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 54% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.1% | 24.6% | 18.3% |
| xgboost | 52.0% | 26.6% | 21.4% |
| logistic | 55.0% | 24.6% | 20.4% |
| Lazio | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1752 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1752 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Ac Milan | 2 - 2 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Udinese | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Genoa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Sassuolo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Lecce | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Udinese | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Inter | 1 - 4 | L |
| 09 Feb 2025 | Lazio | 5 - 1 | Monza |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Monza | 0 - 1 | Lazio |
| 04 May 2024 | Monza | 2 - 2 | Lazio |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Lazio | 1 - 1 | Monza |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Monza | 0 - 2 | Lazio |
| 10 Nov 2022 | Lazio | 1 - 0 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.81 | 17.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.19 | 23.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.97 | 50.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |