| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.2% | 50% | +15.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.5% | 75% | +14.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 85.3% | 66% | +19.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 73% | +3.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 66.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.8% | 23.3% | 26.9% |
| xgboost | 50.9% | 32.6% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 60.7% | 24.4% | 14.9% |
| Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Cambuur | 0 - 3 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Feyenoord | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Zwolle | 3 - 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Willem II | 4 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Groningen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 08 Sep | A | Utrecht | 3 - 3 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 5 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Den Haag | 3 - 1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 May 2026 | Nijmegen | 2 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 1 | Nijmegen |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Nijmegen | 2 - 3 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 0 | Nijmegen |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 2 | Nijmegen |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 05 Feb 2023 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 0 | Nijmegen |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Nijmegen | 3 - 3 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 08 May 2022 | Nijmegen | 1 - 0 | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0 - 2 | Nijmegen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 20 Sep 15:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Sep 15:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 20 Sep 15:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 20 Sep 15:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.88 | 34.7% | 20 Sep 15:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.39 | 29.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.16 | 24.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.02 | 49.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |