| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.5% | 46% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 75% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.9% | 63% | +1.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 59% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.0% | 26.6% | 29.4% |
| xgboost | 44.0% | 26.3% | 29.7% |
| logistic | 54.4% | 25.2% | 20.3% |
| Auxerre | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1561 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1561 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Le Havre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Le Havre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Rennes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Rennes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Brest | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Toulouse | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Paris Saint Germain | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Le Mans | 0 - 1 | Auxerre |
| 02 Aug 2019 | Auxerre | 2 - 0 | Le Mans |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.44 | 29.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.63 | 27.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.16 | 46.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |