| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 58% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| logistic | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Naoya Honda | Filip Peliwo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1474 | 1429 |
| Surface Elo | 1474 | 1429 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Ryuki Matsuda | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Kasidit Samrej | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Petr Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Petr Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | A | Luca Castelnuovo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Saba Purtseladze | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Yaroslav Demin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Moise Kouame | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |