| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.0% | 53% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| logistic | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Dmitry Popko | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1455 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1455 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Daniele Rapagnetta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | A | Cannon Kingsley | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Jan | H | Kimmer Coppejans | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.84 | 54.4% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 19 Oct 06:15 |