OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-31
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026, 20:00 UTC · scheduled
Aston Villa 2.00 20:00 1.60 Fulham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.6%50%+0.4%
DCHome or draw 76.9%76%+0.7%
DNBHome (DNB) 66.9%67%-0.4%
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 54.5%44%+10.0%
BTTSBTTS no 51.6%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson48.4%26.1%25.6%
xgboost50.4%25.8%23.8%
logistic48.5%26.4%25.1%
Inputs the models saw
Aston VillaFulham
Elo (pre-match)17771681
Surface Elo17771681
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.60
Form trend-0.60-0.60
Season points per game2.331.75
Season goals for / game1.671.00
Season goals against / game1.000.75
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W2 W · 0 D
Aston Villa: last 5
28 OctABournemouth0 - 3L
27 OctABlackpool2 - 3L
24 OctHManchester City2 - 1W
24 OctHManchester City2 - 1W
21 OctHViking FK3 - 1W
Fulham: last 5
28 OctHCrystal Palace0 - 1L
24 OctACoventry1 - 0W
24 OctACoventry1 - 0W
17 OctHHull1 - 0W
17 OctHHull1 - 0W
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Fulham1 - 0Aston Villa
28 Sep 2025Aston Villa3 - 1Fulham
03 May 2025Aston Villa1 - 0Fulham
19 Oct 2024Fulham1 - 3Aston Villa
17 Feb 2024Fulham1 - 2Aston Villa
12 Nov 2023Aston Villa3 - 1Fulham
25 Apr 2023Aston Villa1 - 0Fulham
20 Oct 2022Fulham3 - 0Aston Villa
04 Apr 2021Aston Villa3 - 1Fulham
28 Sep 2020Fulham0 - 3Aston Villa
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.8526.0%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8625.9%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.9950.2%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6759.9%30 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%30 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 14:02 UTC