| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.0% | 56% | -8.5% | |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 82% | -6.4% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.4% | 74% | -11.7% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 65% | -7.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.7% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.8% | 26.6% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 44.8% | 23.8% | 31.4% |
| logistic | 52.6% | 23.8% | 23.6% |
| Harrogate | Altrincham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1456 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1456 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 14 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Nov | H | Fylde | 1 - 4 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Forest Green | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Forest Green | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Oct | A | Carlisle | 0 - 3 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Carlisle | 0 - 3 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Notts County | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Carlisle | 2 - 4 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Carlisle | 2 - 4 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |