| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.1% | 81% | -11.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| logistic | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Felix Gill | Alexander Vasilev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1481 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1481 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Jonas Forejtek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Iliyan Radulov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alexander Vasilev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | A | Gerard Campana Lee | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Emilien Demanet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Eliakim Coulibaly | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alexander Vasilev | 0 - 2 | Felix Gill |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |