| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.1% | 62% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| logistic | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Denis Shapovalov | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1853 | 1826 |
| Surface Elo | 1853 | 1826 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Denis Shapovalov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |