| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.2% | 81% | -13.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 18.5% | 81.4% |
| logistic | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Juan Manuel La Serna | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1626 | 1730 |
| Surface Elo | 1626 | 1730 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Hernan Casanova | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.85 | 26.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |