| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.0% | 71% | -18.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.2% | 55.7% |
| logistic | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Jonas Forejtek | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1606 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1606 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Martin Krumich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 1 | Jonas Forejtek |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |