OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Bayern München 2.20 6 - 1 1.80 RB Leipzig
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 59.2%80%-21.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 84.3%92%-8.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 78.8%91%-12.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 75.1%87%-12.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 68.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson69.4%16.3%14.3%
xgboost48.8%29.0%22.1%
logistic74.1%16.0%9.9%
Inputs the models saw
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
Elo (pre-match)19171707
Surface Elo19171707
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.80
Form trend0.200.00
Season points per game1.003.00
Season goals for / game2.006.00
Season goals against / game2.000.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Bayern München: last 5
13 OctAViking FK3 - 3D
10 OctAAugsburg2 - 2D
10 OctAAugsburg2 - 2D
18 SepHUnion Berlin7 - 0W
13 SepAElversberg2 - 1W
RB Leipzig: last 5
13 OctHPSV Eindhoven1 - 0W
10 OctHEintracht Frankfurt6 - 0W
10 OctHEintracht Frankfurt6 - 0W
20 SepABayer Leverkusen0 - 2L
13 SepHHamburg5 - 0W
Head to head
17 Jan 2026RB Leipzig1 - 5Bayern München
22 Aug 2025Bayern München6 - 0RB Leipzig
03 May 2025RB Leipzig3 - 3Bayern München
20 Dec 2024Bayern München5 - 1RB Leipzig
24 Feb 2024Bayern München2 - 1RB Leipzig
30 Sep 2023RB Leipzig2 - 2Bayern München
20 May 2023Bayern München1 - 3RB Leipzig
20 Jan 2023RB Leipzig1 - 1Bayern München
05 Feb 2022Bayern München3 - 2RB Leipzig
11 Sep 2021RB Leipzig1 - 4Bayern München
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away10.289.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw8.4911.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.2480.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.1487.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under6.1016.4%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:21 UTC