| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.1% | 60% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| logistic | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Adrian Andreev | Izan Almazan Valiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1539 | 1530 |
| Surface Elo | 1539 | 1530 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Ivan Ivanov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Oleg Prihodko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Dusan Obradovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jonas Forejtek | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Izan Almazan Valiente | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Geoffrey Blancaneaux | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | George Lazarov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Adrian Andreev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Adrian Andreev | 2 - 0 | Izan Almazan Valiente |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |