| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.8% | 60% | +0.7% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 84.3% | 84% | -0.1% | abandoned |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 70.7% | 78% | -7.4% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 68% | -12.8% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.4% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.7% | 23.9% | 45.4% |
| xgboost | 35.3% | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| logistic | 28.3% | 27.0% | 44.7% |
| Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1666 | 1720 |
| Surface Elo | 1666 | 1720 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Werder Bremen | 4 - 1 | W |
| 16 May | H | RB Leipzig | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Union Berlin | 4 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Elversberg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 May | H | Hamburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Freiburg | 3 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 0 | Freiburg |
| 04 May 2025 | Freiburg | 2 - 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 - 1 | Freiburg |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Freiburg | 2 - 3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 1 | Freiburg |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Freiburg | 1 - 1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 3 | Freiburg |
| 14 May 2022 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 1 | Freiburg |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Freiburg | 2 - 1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.65 | 60.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.20 | 23.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 20 Sep 06:15 |