| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.6% | 35% | +7.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 79% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.7% | 48% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 56% | +0.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.2% | 27.9% | 32.9% |
| xgboost | 33.5% | 25.3% | 41.1% |
| logistic | 41.3% | 26.9% | 31.8% |
| Hornchurch | Yeovil | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1466 | 1440 |
| Surface Elo | 1466 | 1440 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Fulham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Altrincham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Wealdstone | 6 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Wealdstone | 6 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Boston Utd | 6 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |