| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 43.9% | 43% | +1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 72.7% | 80% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 57.1% | 59% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 53% | +5.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.2% | 33.7% | 32.0% |
| xgboost | 29.3% | 27.1% | 43.6% |
| logistic | 28.8% | 30.6% | 40.6% |
| Kocaelispor | Goztep | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1532 | 1572 |
| Surface Elo | 1532 | 1572 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 2.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Besiktas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Besiktas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Gaziantep | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Gaziantep | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Galatasaray | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Eyupspor | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Rizespor | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Alanyaspor | 2 - 2 | D |
| 07 Sep | H | Gaziantep | 2 - 4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Galatasaray | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Kocaelispor | 1 - 1 | Goztep |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Goztep | 0 - 0 | Kocaelispor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 14:00 |