OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-29
⚽ England EFL Cup · Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Everton 1.00 3 - 1 1.20 Newcastle
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.0%43%+3.5%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.5%74%+0.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 61.9%60%+2.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.7%57%-1.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.5%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson37.2%27.5%35.4%
xgboost46.4%28.3%25.3%
logistic48.5%27.2%24.2%
Inputs the models saw
EvertonNewcastle
Elo (pre-match)16901698
Surface Elo16901698
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.20
Form trend0.50-0.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days54
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Everton: last 5
27 OctAShrewsbury1 - 2L
24 OctAArsenal0 - 2L
24 OctAArsenal0 - 2L
17 OctHChelsea0 - 2L
17 OctHChelsea0 - 2L
Newcastle: last 5
25 OctACrystal Palace2 - 0W
25 OctACrystal Palace2 - 0W
17 OctHAston Villa0 - 1L
17 OctHAston Villa0 - 1L
12 OctACoventry1 - 4L
Head to head
28 Feb 2026Newcastle2 - 3Everton
29 Nov 2025Everton1 - 4Newcastle
25 May 2025Newcastle0 - 1Everton
05 Oct 2024Everton0 - 0Newcastle
02 Apr 2024Newcastle1 - 1Everton
07 Dec 2023Everton3 - 0Newcastle
27 Apr 2023Everton1 - 4Newcastle
19 Oct 2022Newcastle1 - 0Everton
17 Mar 2022Everton1 - 0Newcastle
08 Feb 2022Newcastle3 - 1Everton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.2331.0%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6427.5%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3043.5%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7656.8%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%29 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 14:02 UTC