OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-11-08

NFL · Sunday 08 November 2026, 21:25 UTC · finished

New England Patriots – 27 - 45 – Green Bay Packers

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	61.7%	63%	-1.2%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	61.7%	38.3%

Inputs the models saw

	New England Patriots	Green Bay Packers
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.09
form diff	0.00
rest diff	-0.41
home field	1.00
point diff	0.13
opponent strength diff	0.06
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-11-07T21:25:00+00:00

New England Patriots: last 5

01 Nov	A	Miami Dolphins	24 - 19	W
23 Oct	A	Chicago Bears	24 - 30	L
18 Oct	H	New York Jets	26 - 19	W
11 Oct	H	Las Vegas Raiders	45 - 17	W
04 Oct	A	Buffalo Bills	29 - 26	W

Green Bay Packers: last 5

30 Oct	H	Carolina Panthers	27 - 19	W
25 Oct	A	Detroit Lions	17 - 20	L
19 Oct	H	Dallas Cowboys	23 - 13	W
11 Oct	H	Chicago Bears	31 - 7	W
04 Oct	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17 - 14	W

Head to head

02 Oct 2022	Green Bay Packers	27 - 24	New England Patriots
05 Nov 2018	New England Patriots	31 - 17	Green Bay Packers
30 Nov 2014	Green Bay Packers	26 - 21	New England Patriots
20 Dec 2010	New England Patriots	31 - 27	Green Bay Packers
19 Nov 2006	Green Bay Packers	0 - 35	New England Patriots
13 Oct 2002	New England Patriots	10 - 28	Green Bay Packers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.56	64.1%	08 Nov 20:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.60	38.5%	08 Nov 20:20

Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC