| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 46% | +2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.4% | 75% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.5% | 64% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 60% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.0% | 26.6% | 23.4% |
| xgboost | 44.8% | 27.4% | 27.8% |
| logistic | 42.6% | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| Celta | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1627 | 1603 |
| Surface Elo | 1627 | 1603 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Juventus | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Elche | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Elche | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Santander | 5 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 0 - 0 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Valencia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Santander | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Celta | 3 - 4 | Alaves |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Alaves | 0 - 1 | Celta |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Alaves | 1 - 1 | Celta |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Celta | 2 - 1 | Alaves |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Alaves | 3 - 0 | Celta |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Celta | 1 - 1 | Alaves |
| 07 May 2022 | Celta | 4 - 0 | Alaves |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Alaves | 1 - 2 | Celta |
| 04 Apr 2021 | Alaves | 1 - 3 | Celta |
| 20 Dec 2020 | Celta | 2 - 0 | Alaves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 18 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.53 | 65.4% | 18 Oct 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.27 | 30.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.33 | 42.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.40 | 41.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.61 | 62.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |