| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.0% | 81% | -17.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| logistic | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Diego Dedura Palomero | Vadym Ursu | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1530 | 1376 |
| Surface Elo | 1530 | 1376 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 12 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Kilian Feldbausch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Dusan Lajovic | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 May | H | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Joao Domingues | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Gabi Adrian Boitan | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 04 Oct 06:15 |