| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 55% | -0.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.7% | 82% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.9% | 74% | -1.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.9% | 57% | -9.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.5% | 27.4% | 28.1% |
| xgboost | 51.0% | 28.9% | 20.1% |
| logistic | 60.9% | 24.7% | 14.3% |
| Cambridge | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1439 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1439 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Gillingham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Reading | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Burton | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Sep | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Doncaster | 1 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Bromley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Burton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Mar 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 1 | Cambridge |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Cambridge | 1 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.62 | 61.7% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.08 | 48.1% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |