| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.1% | 72% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| logistic | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Tommaso Compagnucci | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1631 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1631 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 0 | Tommaso Compagnucci |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.39 | 71.9% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 23 Sep 06:15 |