| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.6% | 80% | -5.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 94.7% | 95% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 94.5% | 93% | +1.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 77% | -9.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 41.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.8% | 23.0% | 17.2% |
| xgboost | 84.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| logistic | 76.2% | 16.9% | 6.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1658 | 1507 |
| Surface Elo | 1658 | 1507 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.83 | 0.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | H | Willem II | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | For Sittard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Utrecht | 4 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Cambuur | 2 - 2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Ajax | 0 - 4 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 0 - 1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 05 Oct 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Telstar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 11.00 | 9.1% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.00 | 16.7% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 10.20 | 9.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.24 | 13.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.60 | 27.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |