| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.4% | 83% | -21.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | |
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | |
| Nadia Podoroska | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1442 | 1649 |
| Surface Elo | 1442 | 1649 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | H | Suzan Lamens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Eva Lys | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Lucrezia Stefanini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Paula Badosa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Suzan Lamens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Mary Stoiana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Jazmin Ortenzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Mikulskyte, Justina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Nadia Podoroska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Mary Stoiana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Nadia Podoroska | 2 - 0 | Paula Badosa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.20 | 83.3% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.85 | 20.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |