| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.4% | 74% | -16.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.9% | 94% | -9.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.6% | 91% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 61% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.5% | 21.5% | 19.0% |
| xgboost | 55.3% | 27.2% | 17.5% |
| logistic | 65.3% | 22.0% | 12.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1443 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1443 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.73 | 0.91 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| Rest days | 3 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 1 - 1 | D |
| 16 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Bolton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Wycombe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Charlton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Cardiff | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Mar 2022 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 - 0 | Watford |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Watford | 0 - 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 01 Jan 2020 | Watford | 2 - 1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 28 Sep 2019 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 - 0 | Watford |
| 27 Apr 2019 | Watford | 1 - 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| 20 Oct 2018 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 - 2 | Watford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.25 | 16.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.26 | 12.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.38 | 18.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |