OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-14

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Wednesday 14 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · finished

Daniil Medvedev 2.40 2 - 0 2.40 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	65.6%	69%	-3.3%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	57.6%	42.4%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	68.7%	31.3%
logistic	60.1%	39.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Stefanos Tsitsipas
Elo (pre-match)	2063	1941
Surface Elo	2063	1941
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	0.00	-0.30
Season points per game	2.70	3.00
Season goals for / game	1.80	2.00
Season goals against / game	0.40	0.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	5 W	5 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Jan Lennard Struff	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	H	Rodrigo Alujas	2 - 1	W

Stefanos Tsitsipas: last 5

14 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
12 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W

Head to head

14 Oct 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
18 Feb 2026	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
02 Oct 2024	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
23 Oct 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
08 May 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
14 Nov 2022	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
15 Aug 2022	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
17 Jan 2022	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 1	Stefanos Tsitsipas
31 May 2021	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 3	Stefanos Tsitsipas
08 Feb 2021	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.85	35.1%	13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.45	69.0%	13 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC