| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 81.8% | 92% | -10.3% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 95.5% | 100% | -4.3% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 95.0% | 99% | -4.5% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 89% | -25.1% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.3% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 93.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| xgboost | 82.3% | 9.7% | 8.0% |
| logistic | 89.5% | 8.8% | 1.6% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1810 | 1313 |
| Surface Elo | 1810 | 1313 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 3.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Volendam | 5 - 3 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Porto | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | FC Dordrecht | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Helmond Sport | 4 - 3 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Cambuur | 1 - 6 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Cambuur | 1 - 6 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 3 | L |
| 08 Feb 2025 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 1 | Willem II |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Willem II | 0 - 2 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 01 May 2022 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 - 2 | Willem II |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Willem II | 2 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 09 May 2021 | Willem II | 0 - 2 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 08 Nov 2020 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 0 | Willem II |
| 08 Feb 2020 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 0 | Willem II |
| 10 Nov 2019 | Willem II | 2 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 25 Apr 2019 | Willem II | 0 - 3 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 01 Sep 2018 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 - 1 | Willem II |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 23.43 | 4.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 13.92 | 7.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.09 | 91.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.12 | 89.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 6.60 | 15.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |