| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.8% | 69% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| logistic | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Rei Sakamoto | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1756 | 1910 |
| Surface Elo | 1756 | 1910 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 9 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 0 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.05 | 32.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |