| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.6% | 41% | +6.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 79% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.1% | 55% | +4.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 65% | -11.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.8% | 24.1% | 41.1% |
| xgboost | 41.6% | 21.3% | 37.1% |
| logistic | 35.2% | 30.3% | 34.5% |
| Osnabruck | Dresden | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1365 | 1392 |
| Surface Elo | 1365 | 1392 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Braunschweig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Braunschweig | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Bochum | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Heidenheim | 3 - 5 | L |
| 28 Jun 2020 | Dresden | 2 - 2 | Osnabruck |
| 15 Dec 2019 | Osnabruck | 3 - 0 | Dresden |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |