| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 36.5% | 44% | -7.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.6% | 33.7% |
| xgboost | 34.6% | 64.2% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Minnesota Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1570 | 1566 |
| Surface Elo | 1570 | 1566 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 03 May | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 May | A | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Buffalo Sabres | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Boston Bruins | 4 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 May | A | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 4 | L |
| 12 May | H | Colorado Avalanche | 2 - 5 | L |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 - 3 | Minnesota Wild |
| 04 Mar 2026 | Minnesota Wild | 5 - 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Minnesota Wild | 5 - 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 24 Oct 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 4 | Minnesota Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 08 Oct 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.28 | 43.9% | 08 Oct 19:20 |