| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.6% | 33% | +11.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.4% | 79% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.5% | 47% | +8.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 54% | +4.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.1% | 25.0% | 45.8% |
| xgboost | 39.5% | 29.5% | 31.0% |
| logistic | 42.3% | 26.1% | 31.6% |
| Red Star | St Etienne | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1538 | 1563 |
| Surface Elo | 1538 | 1563 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.13 | 2.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Clermont | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Clermont | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Guingamp | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Guingamp | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Metz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Rodez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Metz | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Dunkerque | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Montpellier | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Dijon | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Mar 2026 | St Etienne | 2 - 0 | Red Star |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Red Star | 2 - 1 | St Etienne |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 17 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 17 Oct 19:00 |