| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.7% | 48% | -1.5% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 78% | -3.1% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.1% | 66% | -4.8% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 55% | +5.9% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.8% | 22.2% | 23.1% |
| xgboost | 36.2% | 31.1% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 39.8% | 28.6% | 31.5% |
| Metz | Pau FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1476 | 1449 |
| Surface Elo | 1476 | 1449 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Dunkerque | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Oct | A | Dunkerque | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Sochaux | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Sochaux | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dijon | 2 - 4 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Grenoble | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Guingamp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Guingamp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Laval | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Pau FC | 2 - 1 | Metz |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Metz | 0 - 0 | Pau FC |
| 08 Apr 2023 | Pau FC | 1 - 1 | Metz |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Metz | 1 - 0 | Pau FC |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.33 | 30.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |