| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 57% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.9% | 85% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.9% | 77% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 47% | +18.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.9% | 29.2% | 33.9% |
| xgboost | 68.8% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| logistic | 55.8% | 28.3% | 15.8% |
| Farense | Feirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1432 | 1326 |
| Surface Elo | 1432 | 1326 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 511 | 2703 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Chaves | 4 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Santa Clara | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | A | Guimaraes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 May | H | Famalicao | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | Gil Vicente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | SC Salgueiros | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 May | H | Aves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 May | A | Santa Clara | 4 - 4 | D |
| 04 May | H | Chaves | 4 - 4 | D |
| 27 Apr | A | Portimonense | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.60 | 21.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.70 | 58.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |