| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 71.7% | 80% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| logistic | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Hugo Gaston | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1780 | 1912 |
| Surface Elo | 1780 | 1912 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 27 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Sho Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Sep | H | Daniel Merida | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Otto Virtanen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Hugo Gaston |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Hugo Gaston |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.21 | 82.6% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.70 | 21.3% | 27 Sep 06:15 |