| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.1% | 50% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.9% | 81% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.7% | 70% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 49% | +6.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.6% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| xgboost | 45.8% | 33.4% | 20.8% |
| logistic | 50.1% | 27.5% | 22.5% |
| Modena | Verona | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1462 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1462 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Empoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 4 - 4 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Avellino | 0 - 1 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Lugano | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | Benevento | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Arezzo | 5 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.33 | 23.1% | 11 Oct 18:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 18:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 11 Oct 18:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 11 Oct 18:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 11 Oct 18:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.99 | 50.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.79 | 55.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |