| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.0% | 71% | -12.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| logistic | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Juncheng Shang | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1740 | 1644 |
| Surface Elo | 1740 | 1644 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 24 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Aug | H | Luciano Darderi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Matisse Bobichon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Dan Added | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Matisse Bobichon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Dominik Kellovsky | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | Juncheng Shang |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Juncheng Shang |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.42 | 70.4% | 24 Sep 06:15 |