| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.5% | 67% | -16.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.2% | 43.7% |
| logistic | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Marco Cecchinato | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1681 | 1634 |
| Surface Elo | 1681 | 1634 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 10 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Sep | H | Henri Squire | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Henri Squire | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Laslo Djere | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Daniel Michalski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Marco Cecchinato | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Daniel Michalski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Matias Soto | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Maxim Mrva | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 17 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 17 Sep 06:15 |