| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 75.9% | 79% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 19.3% | 80.6% |
| logistic | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Thiago Cigarran | Nicolas Kicker | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1385 | 1597 |
| Surface Elo | 1385 | 1597 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Cigarran | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Milledge Cossu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | Thiago Cigarran |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 1 | Thiago Cigarran |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Nicolas Kicker | 1 - 2 | Thiago Cigarran |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.26 | 79.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.65 | 27.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |